Cases of bird flu in Southeast Asia this year: Zero
But UN coordinator stops short of saying virus dying out

It may be too early to arrive at a conclusion, but the region where the deadly avian bird flu first erupted in 2003 has had no new human cases reported this year, leading health officials speculate that the virus may indeed have an end point.

The New York Times reports that the virus H5N1 hasn't been reported in any part of Southeast Asia in humans during the past 12 months, and no cases in poultry for the past six months, where it was first reported and claimed most of its victims, both avian and human.

The newspaper quotes Dr. David Nabarro, the United Nations' chief pandemic flu coordinator as saying, "In Thailand and Vietnam, we've had the most fabulous success stories." But Nabarro stopped short of saying the virus was dying out, the newspaper reported, adding he said he was "cautious in interpreting these shifts in patterns" because too little is known about how the disease spreads.

This news is particularly significant for these two countries, because Vietnam had almost half the human cases of avian flu worldwide, and there hasn't been a single reported case in either humans or poultry this year, the newspaper reported. Thailand, also particularly hard-hit, hasn't had a human case reported in nearly a year or an avian case in six months, the Times said.

A second significant development, the Times reports, is that birds migrating during the spring from Africa to Europe have not so far carried the H5N1 virus into Europe.

Since bird flu appeared in 2003, more than 100 people have died worldwide, and health experts say that all of them died after having been in contact with birds. This has led to the belief that the virus has not yet mutated to cause human-to-human infection.

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Last updated 5/15/2006